In Search for an Analogy for Iraq's Pending Civil War

When I try to make sense of the world I often turn to analogies. Law, psychology, science and the blogosphere all rely heavily on the use of analogy. I'm constantly grasping for an good visual analogy to illustrate a point. For example, to help illustrate his character, I liken Karl Rove to the nearly indestructible, evil Agent Smith in the Matrix films.

So, I naturally look for an analogy to grasp the continuing debacle in Iraq. Now that Sunnis are blowing up sacred Shi'ite shrines and Shi'ites are responding by blowing up Sunni shrines, I think this might just be a really good time to call it a day and go home. The country is on the brink of civil war, and it's rarely a good move to get caught in the middle of somebody else's civil war. The analogy is this: It's like when you go to a couple's house for dinner, and before you can even hand over your bottle of merlot, you sense that they were fighting before you got there.

At first you notice the somber moods and then some icy stares between the two. They start saying snide things to each other over dinner. You compliment the new leather sofa and one of them says, "Thank you. I'm glad somebody likes it." And the other one says, "Well, somebody forgot that we have a cat so enjoy the couch now because within the week, it'll look like it'd been on a quail hunting trip with Dick Cheney." (Note the bonus analogy within an analogy.)

Then after awhile, things go from bad to worse. "Fred" explodes and screams that "Alice" can go to Hell. Alice responds by throwing her wine glass across the table, pegging Fred in the cheekbone and splattering your shirt with merlot.

What do you do? You stand up, stretch your arms, look at your watch and exclaim, "Gee, it's getting awfully late. We better get going. Thanks so much for having us." And you're out the door.

Iraq is just like that. OK, maybe not exactly like that.

We weren't exactly invited guests to Iraq. Despite continuing violence and unrest, most Iraqis are eager for the U.S. military to go away: Almost a quarter of Shi'ites want the U.S. military out in six months, another half want a gradual withdrawal over the next two years. A whopping 83% of Sunnis favor withdrawal within six months. Adjusting my analogy, Shi'ite Fred protests little when you announce it's time to go. Sunni Alice has been standing by the door holding up your coats for you since before the bruschetta was served.

To further alter my analogy, Fred and Alice might be arguing, but they are united in their disdain for you. Among Shi'ites, 41% approve of attacks on U.S.-led forces on Iraq. Almost nine of every 10 Sunnis support such attacks. Alice may chuck a wine glass at Fred, but she's got a hefty bucket full of wine glass shards by her side with your name on them.

But, who are we kidding? Fred and Alice aren't married. They despise each other and always have. They are like Richard Dreyfuss and Marsha Mason in The Goodbye Girl. (I know it's an obscure old movie, but my TiVo just recorded it for me over the weekend, so work with me.) Elliot and Paula are forced to live together in New York City after Paula's boyfriend dumps her and sublets the apartment to Elliot without her knowledge.

So the Sunnis and Shi'ites are like Elliot and Paula. If you found yourself in their midst during one of their shouting matches, and if Paula were to stomp a hole into Elliot's guitar, your instinct would be to leave post haste, but you might also try to help restore peace by offering to pay for Elliot to get a new guitar, especially if you were responsible for much of their woes. In all-too-rare positive gesture, this is, in effect, what the U.S. has done in offering to help restore the holy sites.

But unlike the predictable ending to The Goodbye Girl, these two will never break down and fall in love. Ultimately, that analogy blows.

OK, I've got it. The Shi'ites and the Sunnis are like bitter prison cell mates, forced to live within inches of one another in squalid quarters. Their tempers are short and if the other so much as sneezes the wrong way, fists will fly. And this is no Kiss of the Spider Woman prison story where the two end up falling in love.

When the inevitable battle ensues, the last place you want to be is in the cell with them. You might stand outside the cell and intervene if things get really ugly, provided you can do so without getting yourself maimed in the process. That's the Congressman John Murtha strategy--get out of Iraq now and stage a small force in Kuwait.

Alas, my analogy is still far-fetched, disregarding the fact that the ill-conceived U.S. invasion is responsible for most of the chaos. Instead, I think I'll go with Murtha's, as he laid it out on 60 Minutes in January:

"That election of course is being trumpeted as being so important to democracy. When I came back from Vietnam in 1967, they had an election. It was supposed to set the stage. It was supposed to legitimize the government, if you remember. And we lost 38,000 people after that. Now, I don't say that this has the same intensity and that we'’re gonna lose 38,000 people. But I'm just saying there'’s a lot more things have to be done if you'’re going to have a democratic government," says Murtha.

Vietnam is not a perfect analogy, but as we find ourselves in the middle of a potential civil war, it seems more relevant, and cautionary, than ever.